Month: December 2007

Uh-oh… could the writers’ strike pop the LA housing bubble?

Here’s the first note from Paul Krugman, who found Calculated Risk’s comparison o “the rise in the price-rent ratio during the Los Angeles housing bubble of the late 1980s with the rise in the United States as a whole as of mid-2005; they were about the same. By the time the US bubble burst, in late 2006, the national bubble of the 2000s had inflated further than the LA bubble of the 1980s ever did.

So what happened after the LA bubble burst? Angry Bear did the calculations. House prices fell for abut 5 years, for a cumulative 20 percent decline. Since non-housing prices continued to rise, this was a 30 percent fall in real terms.”

Now, what was happening in LA around that time? A lot of people point to the collapse of the defense spending boom with the end of the Cold War, but that affected defense contractors all over California. But specific to LA? The Writers Strike of 1988, which crippled production of film and TV studios for months, even after the strike ended due to the lag time in producing scripts. And remember that movie and TV production is a huge economic engine for the city, the US film industry as a whole made about $44 billion in 2004.

Now it’s two decades later. The LA Housing market is even more overpriced, combined this time with the sub-prime mortgage mess. And the current strike looks to cripple the industry for months again. So if I’m reading this right, the studios are going to help cause California to implode.

I’m hoping somebody can tell me I’m wrong, but this doesn’t look good. Mark? Paul? Nikki? Anybody?

Watch out below. And Merry Christmas.

On Gerry Cooney and Mitt Romney

My dad’s a born troublemaker. He used to make a habit, back in 1982, of saying that he was rooting for Gerry Cooney to win over Larry Holmes in the boxing match because Cooney was white, and he was white.

When he got back the appropriate level of shock from his audience, he’d say, “Now wait. If I said I was rooting for Cooney because he’s Irish and I’m Irish, you’d have no problems with it. If I said it was because he’s from Long Island and I’m from Long Island, it’d be okay. If I said it was because he’s 6’6 and I’m 6’6…” and by that point people got the general point he was trying to make.

I was reminded of this when listening to Mitt Romeny’s speech on religion, but for all the wrong reasons. Do I vote for Giuliani because he’s a white male from New York? Should people vote for Romney because his faith really isn’t that far from his?

And in the case of ol’ Mitt, should I support someone who doesn’t want to identify with me because I don’t believe in the same god he does? (More atheists in this country than, say, Mormons.)

How about this: vote for the guy who will do the best at the job and best live up to the ideals we profess.

Just for the novelty of it all.

Welcome to 21st Century America, where if you don’t tattoo your children you’re a bad parent.

Dear Lord.

It can happen anywhere—at an amusement park, zoo, school field trip, museum, or even your local shopping mall. Your attention shifts for a moment, and suddenly your child or loved one has wandered out of sight.

So put the odds in your favor for a safe return, with SafetyTat. Designed by a graphics professional and Mom of three kids, SafetyTat is a fun and colorful temporary tattoo that’s uniquely personalized with your phone number. When applied to the arm of your child or loved one, SafetyTat provides an immediate, highly visible form of identification that stays in place even when wet and lasts for days.

Are you scaaaaaared yet, mommy and daddy?