...but I can find a few more windows I forgot to close.

• Why Pundits Are Bad Predictors. "The best predictor, in a backward sort of way, was fame: the more feted by the media, the worse a pundit's accuracy. And therein lay Tetlock's first clue. The media's preferred pundits are forceful, confident and decisive, not tentative and balanced. They are, in short, hedgehogs, not foxes.
  

  That bestiary comes from the political philosopher Isaiah Berlin, who in 1953 argued that hedgehogs "know one big thing." They apply that one thing (for instance, that ethnicity and language are primal; ergo, any country that contains many ethnic groups will break up) everywhere, express supreme confidence in their forecasts, dismiss opposing views and are drawn to top-down arguments deduced from that Big Idea. Foxes, in contrast, "know many things," as Berlin put it. They consider competing views, make bottom-up inductive arguments from an array of facts and doubt the power of Big Ideas. "The hedgehog-fox dimension did what none of the other traits did," says Tetlock, who described the study in his 2005 book "Expert Political Judgment": "distinguish more accurate forecasters from less accurate ones" in both politics (will Iraq break up?) and economics (whither unemployment?).

  In short, what experts think matters far less than how they think, or their cognitive style. At one extreme, hedgehogs seek certainty and closure, dismiss information that undercuts their preconceptions and embrace evidence that reinforces them, in what is called "belief defense and bolstering." At the other extreme, foxes are cognitively flexible, modest and open to self-criticism.
   
• Why the Republican Party Must Die - Generational Theft and End of Republicans - Esquire
   
• Diamond is no longer nature’s hardest material
   
• Mind Hacks
   
• Why Facebook Is for Old Fogies and Facebook: 25 Things I Didn't Want to Know About You - TIME
   
• Judge Takes Money to Jail Children. Ain't that heartening...
   
• Odysseus 1.0b14. Finally, a replacement for Eudora... maybe. Yes, I may be the last person to use Eudora for the Mac.
   

Wow, two posts in two days. This could be a trend.

All right, really simple. As you may know, Sarah Palin, "champion of smaller government and family values", and Republican nominee for vice-president, was just found guilty of ethics violations in pressuring her subordinates to fire her ex-brother-in-law, Mike Wooten... using the resources of the state to punish Wooten.

Now, imagine she gets elected to vice-president.

Is there a single person reading this who doesn't think that Mike Wooten will be audited by the IRS?

What if he's put on the no-fly list? In Alaska, that's crippling-- they fly everywhere in the state, plus to get to the continental 48, unless you want to drive for hours through Canada.

How about if Wooten has his passport file flagged? If that happens and he's on the no-fly list, he's effectively locked in Alaska permanently.

Is it out of the realm of possibility that his phone would be tapped and his email scrutinized?

Does anybody think that Sarah Palin wouldn't use the powers of her office to continue going after Wooten? And if so, why would you let her get even close to that level of power?

And if she did get this power-- what would stop her from using it on you if you crossed her?

Paul Krugman on the financial crisis:

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Fear and negative equity … The two things we have to fear are fear itself and negative equity, and the depleted capital of financial institutions … Amongst the things we have to fear are fear itself, negative equity, and the depleted capital of financial institutions.

Okay, this is a bad marketing slogan-- the latest from Microsoft:

Windows -- Life Without Walls

Think about it. Walls are actually important to windows-- they keep the window in place. If you don't have a wall in the first place, you have one of three things:

1. Windows aren't needed; there's nothing in the way.

2. Windows are so big and oversized that it becomes a wall in and of itself;

3. Windows falls to the ground hard and crashes.

Maybe they should bring back Seinfeld.

If you had 4:41 in the pool, you won!

Yes, 4:41 PM, not AM the next day.

As always: 110 Stories.

Oh, and we have this via John Cole: Osama Who?

The mother of all goalpost moves happened yesterday:

Q But Osama bin Laden is the one that — you keep talking about his lieutenants, and, yes, they are very important, but Osama bin Laden was the mastermind of 9/11 –

PERINO: No, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was the mastermind of 9/11, and he’s sitting in jail right now.

 Really. I'll have more to say about this later, because someone should avoid mean (but accurate) words on this day.

...which means it's time to close some windows:

 The USSR was better prepared for a collapse than the US is now, says a man who isn't Jared Diamond.

Porn Saints.

She can borrow millions for a hockey rink for her town, but Sarah Palin wanted rape victims to pay for their own rape kits. A few thoughts: 1. How many rapes weren't reported because they didn't want to pay the money? 2. One can assume that the cost included a morning after pill, which one presumes Palin wanted no part of. 3. According to the police chief that was appointed by Palin, they would have had to allocate enough money expect 12 rapes a year... in a town of 6000 people. That means that they expect the odds of being sexually assaulted is 1 in 500. Which is about four times the national per capita average. But hey, we already know Wasilia is the meth capital of Alaska...

Scott McClellan to Barack Obama: Don't investigate us. “If Obama were to win,” he said last week, “that would be an issue his administration would have to face early ... because he’s pledging to be a uniter, not a divider — without saying those exact words we campaigned on in 2000. He’s pledging to change the way Washington works, and if Congress were to pursue that, it would be very divisive.” You know what unites a community? A crackdown on crime. If law and order crackdowns work in neighborhoods, why won't it work on Wall Street or Pennsylvania Avenue?

Thought control in economics, or the perils of groupthink.

Armstrong WIllams asks: "Who says President Bush is irrelevant and only a burden to anyone who dares invoke his name?" And the answer is: Anyone who takes a quarter of a million dollars in payola to repeat his propaganda, Mr. Williams. So how much did he pay you this time around?

So this is what Ethan Lebovics has been up to...

Oh, and I've joined Facebook. All because some meanie started posting photos of someone that kinda looked like me about 20 years ago. Scaaaaaary stuff.

After watching her speech last night, I think she's only a dye job and a pair of contact lenses away from becoming Ann Coulter.

And Rudy... if he only would have shut his yap, they would have had time to run her promotional video. But no. He had to pick on cosmopolitan people, like those who lived in the city he was mayor of. Let's see how much it hurts the Republicans later-- unless, of course, they decide to run it tonight, or edit it into McCain's video so that they're joined at the hip. A hip replacement, as it were.

McCain has burned the boats. There is no way for him now but forward.

I guess when people got to know me from the last post, a large percentage liked what they heard, and then it went viral...

But really-- what are the odds a white male can get elected President?

In the immortal words of Jon Lovitz and the meme picked up from the distant but not forgotten Lisa Sullivan:

1. What is your occupation right now? VP,Production/Utility Infielder, ComicMix.

2. What color are your socks right now? Black.

3. What are you listening to right now? Wind chimes and a distant highway.

4. What was the last thing that you ate? Ham on a bagel. Hah!

5. Can you drive a stick shift? Hell yes.

6. Last person you spoke to on the phone? A telemarketer asking why I left Verizon (because Verizon cut access to the alt. newsgroups, and you should leave them for that reason too).

7. Do you like the person who sent this to you? Oh mais oui.

8. How old are you today? 39.

9. What is your favorite sport to watch? I'm not sure it counts as a sport. If it does, it's rarely considered a spectator sport. And like most sports, it's more fun to watch live, and even more fun if you're playing.

10. What is your favorite drink? Alcoholic: Ice wine. Nonalcoholic: Diet Pepsi Max, lord help me.

11. Have you ever dyed your hair? Occasionally whitened for theatrical reasons. And yes, some of it's still in there. Honest.

12. Favorite food? Roast beef on toasted garlic bread with melted mozzerella and bacon. (Damn. Now I'm hungry.)

13. What is the last movie you watched? Shoot 'Em Up.

14. Favorite day of the year? Thanksgiving.

15. How do you vent anger? I have a punching bag in the basement.

16. What was your favorite toy as a child? Merlin.

17. What is your favorite season? Swimsuit.

18. Cherries or Blueberries? Cherries.

19. Do you want your friends to e-mail you back? If they don't want me to wonder about them.

20. Who is the most likely to respond? To email? Probably Mike Gold.

21. Who is least likely to respond? The dead ones.

22. Living arrangements? Brownstone.

23. When was the last time you cried? Last week.

24. What is on the floor of your closet? Shoes and probably a hairball.

25. Who is the friend you have had the longest that you are sending this to? Lord, I don't know who's going to read this-- if it's who I think it is, say hi to the kids for me.

26. What did you do last night? Stayed up way too late.

27. What inspires you? If I knew, it wouldn't be an inspiration, it would be a routine. But knowing that what I do goes out into the world in directions I can't predict to effect things in ways I can't anticipate and can never fully explain or even know-- that's impressive.

28. What are you most afraid of? Willful, premeditated, and sustained ignorance.

29. Plain, cheese or spicy hamburgers? Plain.

30. Favorite cat breed? They have breeds? I've only had mutts.

31. Favorite day of the week? I don't have one. Weekends are usually pretty good.

32. How many states have you lived in? Four: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Neil Cavuto courageoulsy says that he "will conveniently destroy this message in the event I'm wrong" and gosh, I just can't let him do it. We should keep it for posterity. After all, I count two things that are wrong in the article already, so it may disappear any minute. See if you can spot them.

Cavuto: The Democrats are Done

It's August.

It's early.

But for Democrats, it's over.

Over. Done. Fini.

At the risk of sounding like I've snapped...allow me this snap judgment.

The Democrats have just lost the presidency this week.

For them, a horrible week.

So horrible...so discombobulated. So inconsistently communicated and messaged, that they've lost their message.

And I think, this election too.

Because here's the deal as we end this week, my friends.

The Dems...are done.

I know. Laugh all you want. And I will conveniently destroy this message in the event I'm wrong.

But here's why I don't think I am.

During this crucial defining period that brought a Russian bear out of hibernation and a befuddled Nancy Pelosi into drilling reality...allow me to drill home this point.

Democrats lost a lot of mojo this week, their only saving grace that it's an August week.

I don't think that will save them.

Not when Russia threatens a new Cold War and the best their presumptive nominee can do is offer hope warring parties could put aside their hostilities...

While his opponent calls Russia what it clearly was and is: a bully. And a bully that must be dealt with.

And if his presidential metal wasn't tested enough...Barack Obama caves to Hillary Clinton and allows a roll call vote. He's doing it for all good and decent reasons. But nothing good or decent will come of it....her supporters still don't flip over him, no matter what he does to accommodate them.

He's given Hillary a prime time speech. Bill a prime time speech. Chelsea a prime time speech. Is Sox the Cat still around?

My god, who won this damn thing? Show some backbone, man!

Then in the middle of the week Obama's economic team comes out with this grand explanation of a tax cut package that reminds all again...not of cuts promised for the middle class...but serious hikes for those who don't much consider themselves above middle class.

And charges again that these new numbers "still" don't add up as we explored on this very show.

On the very same week Nancy Pelosi read the furor among her own members and decided to backtrack on that no-drilling vote thing.

Not good things for a party that said it would lead the charge.

It shouldn't be this way...with the slowing economy, democrats should be running away.

But they look weak on a military crisis.

Inconsistent on an economic crisis.

And impotent on their own brewing political convention crisis.

Things change. Tides ebb and flow.

But I think we will look back to this week in August as the time the party that had it all in the bag...just puked in it.

Let's see. It's presidential mettle, not metal; and Socks the cat, not Sox. And the rest of the ways Cavuto's wrong will become obvious later. But no later than November, I suspect.

Prompted by the reminder of Jim Macdonald's Gnomic Verses from his dad, I have to add some of my own gleaned wisdom:

* When hanging upside down from a seatbelt, see if the other person in the car knows how to get out first.

* No matter how stupid you think people are, they're stupider.

* You don't have to worry about preparing a will if you're never going to die.

* The advantages inherent in being tall make up for the fact that you'll never fit in an airplane seat.

* You never know what bit of history is going to come in useful.

* Know what you're doing before you gamble.

* No matter where you go, no matter what you do, no matter what troubles you may encounter in your life-- there are nine hundred million people in China who really don't give a shit. So you might as well be happy.

If you can start the day without caffeine,
If you can always be cheerful, ignoring aches and pains,
If you can resist complaining and boring people with your troubles,
If you can eat the same food every day and be grateful for it,
If you can understand when your loved ones are too busy to give you any time,
If you can overlook it when those you love take it out on your when through no fault of yours something goes wrong,
If you can take criticism and blame without resentment,
If you can resist treating a rich friend better than a poor friend,
If you can face the world without lies and deceit,
If you can conquer tension without medical help,
If you can relax without liquor,
If you can sleep without the aid of drugs,
If you can honestly say that deep in your heart you have no prejudice against creed, color, religion, gender preference, or politics...

Then you have reached the same level of development as your dog.

Picked up from here. Cheery, ain't it?

Or at least, where in the country. Grabbed from Dave Mack:

visited 25 states (50%)
Create your own visited map of The United States or determine the next president

I gotta get out more.

...keeps the AC in, dontcha know.

New to the blogosphere: the easy to remember Tor.com and the "what does this name mean?" Suvudu.com. But Zuda still sounds sillier.

Drew, you flatterer.

Status games, and how to avoid low-status negative behaviors.

James Elroy Flecker and The Golden Journey To Samarkand. For lust of knowing what should not be known.

Interviews with Garry Trudeau and George Carlin -- apparently his last one.

In honor of the release of The X-Files movie, self-bondage accidental deaths. Paging Fox Mulder...

The indecency fine against CBS for the Janet Jackson nip slip has been thrown out.

And finally, a blog beg: Anybody know why I can't send outgoing verizon.net mail on my Optimum cable line? It's really ticking me off.