Glenn Hauman: View From Above

Parts of New Orleans are beginning to lose power, as you can see on this webcam. Street lights went out around 4 AM their time. You can follow minute by minute and see for yourself.

…because you knew that somehow, I was going to blame some of this on the pinhead:

From June 2005:

In fiscal year 2006, the New Orleans district of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is bracing for a record $71.2 million reduction in federal funding.

It would be the largest single-year funding loss ever for the New Orleans district, Corps officials said.

“I’ve been here over 30 years and I’ve never seen this level of reduction,” said Al Naomi, project manager for the New Orleans district. “I think part of the problem is it’s not so much the reduction, it’s the drastic reduction in one fiscal year. It’s the immediacy of the reduction that I think is the hardest thing to adapt to.

“There is an economic ripple effect, too. The cuts mean major hurricane and flood protection projects will not be awarded to local engineering firms. Also, a study to determine ways to protect the region from a Category 5 hurricane has been shelved for now.”

Money is so tight the New Orleans district, which employs 1,300 people, instituted a hiring freeze last month on all positions. The freeze is the first of its kind in about 10 years, said Marcia Demma, chief of the Corps’ Programs Management Branch.

About the only thing missing is a memo entitled “Hurricane Determined To Strike In U.S.”. (“But he gets those kinds of memos all the time! How could he know to take it seriously?”)

(Via Suburban Guerrilla.)

So I’m sitting here watching the webcams of New Orleans, wondering how many of these lights are shining for the last time.

Steve Gilliard has his nasty thoughts:

A couple of months ago, Rick Santorum wanted to bar the National Weather Service from sharing some of it’s data with the public.

Let’s see: talking points for tommorrow.

1) Will Bush give up his vacation as a major American city is wiped off the map? We hope that this isn’t the case, but if it is, will Bush finally act like a leader or hide again.

2) Why is the Lousiana National Guard as well as their first responders in the Marines, Army, Navy and Air Force reserve not home to help save their city?

3) Why did the Bush administration repeatedly cut funding for the Corps of Engineers district since 2001, despite being warned that this was one of the most likely disaster to hit the US, after a terrorist attack in New York.

The nasty thoughts that occur to me:

* The US economy is about to tank. Hard. (Again.) We’re about to lose 30% of the nation’s oil refining capacity for weeks at least, possibly months. I expect gasoline to hit $4 a gallon easily, $5 is not impossible. We haven’t even gotten into the impact of the loss of businesses, inventory, livestock, and of course people– not to mention how badly messed up anything that travels along the Mississippi River may be, which is the shipping lane for the central half of the country.

* The housing bubble has just popped, because we’ve just had tens of thousands of mortgages literally go underwater. And if you held stock in insurance companies, kiss your dividends goodbye.

* The federal government is about to pay off on a LOT of flood insurance, increasing an already huge deficit. And that’s before we find out if the southern tip of Louisiana is going to become the nation’s largest Superfund site.

* We are about to have a massive exodus from the southern states, one that will redraw demographic maps for years. We’re also about to have about half a million homeless people, easy.

* Bush may actually have an excuse to pull troops out of Iraq now; they’re needed back home. Of course, knowing him he’ll recommend fighting this with tax cuts.

What you can do:

* Donate cash to the Red Cross. Not supplies, cash.

* Conserve power. NOW. Oil, gas, and natural gas. See if you can convince your boss to let you telecommute, or take mass transit.

* Be prepared for houseguests. They won’t have much with them, and they may be with you for a long while.

* Check in on sign in pages. Let people know you’re okay and where you are. Some are up here and here.

As I was watching how bad Hurricane Katrina was looking and worrying about the people down there, I realized that a large hunk of our nation’s oil capacity was about to be submerged. And lo and behold, I was unfortunately right:

Crude-oil and natural-gas prices may soar after Hurricane Katrina moved into production regions of the Gulf of Mexico, forcing companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. to close operations.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it shut 420,000 barrels of daily oil production in the Gulf. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which handles about 11 percent of U.S. imports, closed yesterday. Katrina is one of the most powerful storms ever to enter the Gulf, source of about 30 percent of U.S. oil production and 24 percent of the country’s natural gas.

“Forecasters are saying Katrina could do more energy damage than any storm in recent years,” said Jason Schenker an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte. “It’s not just that there’s going to be outages for the next couple of days. With shutdowns and damage at platforms and refineries, the bullish impact could be felt for the rest of the year.”

$3 a gallon for gas? Brother, we’re going to be lucky if we can keep it to $5. All bets are now off.

Here’s a picture:

The good news: It seems that colleges and universities are actually rejecting high school science courses that aren’t science, but religion, as I suggested here.

The bad news? They’re getting sued over it:

Amid the growing national debate over the mixing of religion and science in America’s classrooms, University of California admissions officials have been accused in a federal civil rights lawsuit of discriminating against high schools that teach creationism and other conservative Christian viewpoints.

The suit was filed in Los Angeles federal court Thursday by the Assn. of Christian Schools International, which represents more than 800 religious schools in the state, and by the Calvary Chapel Christian School in Murrieta, which has an enrollment of more than 1,000.

Under a policy implemented with little fanfare a year ago, UC admissions authorities have refused to certify high school science courses that use textbooks challenging Darwin’s theory of evolution, the suit says.

Other courses rejected by UC officials include “Christianity’s Influence in American History,” “Christianity and Morality in American Literature” and “Special Providence: American Government.”

The 10-campus UC system requires applicants to complete a variety of courses, including science, mathematics, history, literature and the arts. But in letters to Calvary Chapel, university officials said some of the school’s Christian-oriented courses were too narrow to be acceptable.

According to the lawsuit, UC’s board of admissions also advised the school that it would not approve biology and science courses that relied primarily on textbooks published by Bob Jones University Press and A Beka Books, two Christian publishers.

Instead, the board instructed the schools to “submit for UC approval a secular science curriculum with a text and course outline that addresses course content/knowledge generally accepted in the scientific community.”

“It appears that the UC system is attempting to secularize Christian schools and prevent them from teaching from a world Christian view,” said Patrick H. Tyler, a lawyer with Advocates for Faith and Freedom, which is assisting the plaintiffs.

Wendell E. Bird, an Atlanta attorney who represents the Assn. of Christian Schools, said California was the only state in the nation that had taken such actions against Christian schools.

Bird said the schools have no objection to teaching evolution alongside creationism but consider the UC regulations a violation of their rights. “And a threat to one religion is a threat to all,” he added.

UC had not yet been served with the suit, so spokeswoman Ravi Poorsina said she could not comment on its details. But she said the university had a sound legal right to set course requirements for incoming students.

“What we’re doing is really for the benefit of the students,” she said. “These requirements were established after careful study by faculty and staff to ensure that students who come here are fully prepared with broad knowledge and the critical thinking skills necessary to succeed.”

(Via JosephW in comments.)

(In the same vein as the previous post, I found this in my draft post folder from a few weeks back. Via The News Blog.)

Chickenhawks cry about being asked to enlist

Las Vegas, Nevada–YRNC 2005 Chairman Nathan Taylor has been responding to attacks by leftists who threaten protests at the 2005 Young Republican Convention.

“In recent weeks I have received numerous e-mails from leftist groups bent on infiltrating the Convention and protesting the appearance of veterans of the War on Terror. We will not allow these cowards to dishonor our servicemen,” stated Taylor.

“The childish insults and threatened protests of these leftists reveal ignorance of, and disrespect for, the sacrifice borne by many hosted by the Convention,” Taylor continued. “Most of our members either serve, have served, or plan to serve in the United States Armed Forces, or have participated in events or projects supporting the United States Armed Forces. We will not be intimidated.’

Nathan, Nathan, Nathan. We aren’t calling the soldiers cowards, nor are we dishonoring them. In fact, we think it’d be an excellent boost to your honor to become one. Having participated in events supporting the Armed Forces just isn’t enough anymore– how about participating in the Armed Forces itself?

Neat Things: Operation Yellow Elephant:

I finally decided to participate in Operation Yellow Elephant, and I think I successfully ticked off the republicans a bit. I went to their callout and spent a few minutes trying to recruit soldiers for Iraq after the meeting; unfortunately, they had a BOUNCER at their callout, who decided to shut me down. I was called insensitive, Michael Moore, and other nasty names.

There’s a video that’s worth the click.

Lefty and Righty excesses of pseudo-science:

According to Michael Shermer there are:
– science
– borderlands science
– psuedoscience, and
– nonsense

Science is a methodology of figuring out, with as great confidence as possible, how the world works. Evolutionary theory is one of the biggest, strongest and best-supported bodies of all of science.

Borderland Science refers to first small steps in acquiring realistic knowledge about a not-well-understood aspect of the world. It aspires to become Science, but is often held back by various factors, e.g., difficulty in studying the phenomenon of interest, biases of the investigators, social biases against investigations of such phenomena, etc.

For instance, very little is known about hypnosis. It is a real phenomenon but very difficult to study. There is not much funding for it as there is a social bias against such research. Thus, it is still doing its first small pioneering steps and has not resulted in data that are good enough to place it in the realm of real Science.

Another example is Evolutionary Psychology – it is done by psychologists (thus real scientists) who understand biology very poorly, yet strive to make their research scientific. Their own biases make them go up wrong alleys and bark up wrong trees (I love adding up mixed matephors, sorry). Yet, they are asking real questions about real phenomena and it is expected that at some point evolutionary psychology (lowercase) will get its methodology straight and make enough advances to become real Science.

Pseudoscience is an attempt to sell out-of-ass beliefs as scientific by using hifallutin’ terminology, perform meaningless calculations, draw elaborate charts etc. Examples are many (peruse past editions of the Skeptic’s Circle for examples) and include astrology, biorhythms, pyramid force, Feng Shui, crystal balls, alternative medicine, Holocaust denial, Intelligent Design Creationism, and many, many others. The main goal, usually, is making a quick buck, although more sinister motivations are sometimes behind such ideas, i.e., these may serve as methods for making an unrespectable ideology (e.g., Nazism) respectable again, or there is political gain to be had.

Nonsense does not even pretend to be scientific, e.g., Old Earth Creationism.

The psuedoscientific ideas have cropped up, historically, both within the political Right and Left – and often completely detached from any ideology. The crucial difference between the two (today) is that the Lefty pseudoscience has no negative consequences for the broader society. Nobody is hurt if some Birkenstock Lefty performs chants and lights up incense during a spiritual night of camping out in the desert in Arizona.

Lefty pseudoscience was always marginal and marginalized by everyone on both the Left and the Right. No political party has ever pushed for astrology or biorhythms to be used in classrooms or in military planning.

However, attack on science, reason and rationality is the centerpiece of the Right-Wing strategy. The only way they can save their medieval notions about society, economics, religion, science, race, gender equality, etc. from being deposited forever in the trashbin of history is if they systematically brainwash every new generation into dogmatism, uncritical thinking and fearful obedience to their authority. They are in power now – White House, Congress, Supreme Court – and they are ramming anti-science and anti-reality ideas into school (and into media) as hard as they can.

Their strategy is to confuse everyone as to what is science, what is borderlands science, what is pseudoscience, what is nonsense, i.e., what are facts and what is opinion. They are pushing IDC in order to spread the seeds of that confusion. They sneer at the reality-based community. What they are trying to do is institute not just moral relativism, but also factual relativism – nobody knows what the truth is any more and nobody knows how to figure out what the truth is so the only recourse is to blindly believe one’s leaders (while they steal your money and your labor).

Saying that pseudoscientific excesses of the Loony Left are equivalent to the pseudoscientific excesses of the Righteous Right is just an example of such factual (and moral) relativity. The former is silly, discredited, powerless and innocuous. The latter is serious, more and more mainstream and dangerous to the Enlightment and what it gave to the human civilization. The former is laughable. The latter is the key weapon of the Republican Party (at least the faction in power right now).

[snip]

Embracing this change also helps liberalism form a unified, internally consistent ideology, in place of its usual issue-by-issue catalogue of stands.

However, conservatism CANNOT change and get modern and current because hierarchy is the ESSENCE of conservatism. Attempts to modernize weaken conservatism as it is forced to accept liberal views on individual issues (see Europe).

BushCo chose the opposite tactic – keep conservatism logically consistent and intact, thus, in the process, stopping the evolution of all political thought, of science and of society – keeping the status quo indefinitely. Systematic attack on science is a neccessary strategy, actually central strategy for that endeavor to succeed.

Conservatism is violently lashing out like a wounded beast feeling its own impending demise. It is still dangerous. If we are not careful it can kill us. If that happens, history stops, returns to 18th century norms, and persists in that state for a long time. We just have to win this fight, defeat this beast once for all, in order to save the Enlightement and allow the world to move on into the future.

Read, as they say, the whole thing. (Via Science And Politics.)

A Futurama Math Conversation with David X Cohen:

The Fermat’s Last Theorem joke first appeared in the [Simpsons] 3-D Halloween episode Homer3, and I got the idea that I could come up with a near-counterexample to Fermat’s Last Theorem that is accurate enough that if you test it on a bad calculator, it would appear to be true, and it would drive people crazy.

From a comment on SlashDot on Siberian Permafrost Melting:

GOOFUS has a PhD.
GALLANT has a PhD in a field unrelated to his research.

GOOFUS gets little respect as a scientist outside the scientific community.
GALLANT gets little respect as a scientist inside the scientific community.

GOOFUS drives a beat-up old car.
GALLANT drives a BMW unless his chauffeur is driving.

GOOFUS wears street clothes to work, maybe a lab suit on occasion.
GALLANT wears three piece suits at all times.

GOOFUS is employed by a “university”, a “hospital”, or a “laboratory”.
GALLANT is employed by a “Coalition”, an “Institute”, an “Association”, a “Foundation”, a “Council”, or a “White House”.

GOOFUS earns $30000 per year unless they cut his funding.
GALLANT earns $200000 per year but makes his real money from speaking fees.

GOOFUS lives anywhere in the country.
GALLANT lives in a wealthy area near Washington DC, but may have additional homes elsewhere.

GOOFUS may sometimes be filmed standing in front of big melting icebergs.
GALLANT may be filmed sitting in front of a bookcase or standing behind a podium at a $2000 per plate fundraiser, although there may be ice melting in his drink.

GOOFUS is a dues-paying member of several scientific grassroots organizations.
GALLANT is on the payroll of several scientific astroturf organizations.

GOOFUS gets summoned for jury duty but is never picked as a juror.
GALLANT claims “the jury is still out” on evolution or global warming, since he considers himself to be on the jury.

GOOFUS maintains the world is five billion years old.
GALLANT isn’t really saying, but creationists distribute his pamphlets all the time.

GOOFUS claims the world is warming as a direct result of human activity.
GALLANT either claims that climate change doesn’t exist, or if it does, that humans have nothing to do with it.

GOOFUS and his graduate students do the dirty work of collecting raw data and looking for conclusions to be drawn from it.
GALLANT does the dirty work of discrediting GOOFUS by manipulating his data in Excel with statistically invalid techniques.

GOOFUS writes scientific papers and grant proposals.
GALLANT writes the nation’s environmental legislation and a column for the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page.

GOOFUS draws scientific conclusions from the data he collects that usually come out in agreement with the scientific consensus.
GALLANT paints the scientific consensus as being entirely political in nature and enjoys comparing himself to Galileo.

GOOFUS is heavily trained to be a skeptic and to treat information from all sources with a skeptical mind.
GALLANT is heavily marketed as a skeptic but reserves his skepticism for GOOFUS.

GOOFUS isn’t paid much attention by the press since his opinions are commonplace among scientists.
GALLANT holds maverick opinions for a scientist which keeps him busy running from one balanced talk show to the next.

GOOFUS has no PR skills.
GALLANT leverages his PR experience all the time, although he has access to paid PR staff.

GOOFUS claims the sky is falling and we have to take painful steps to reduce CO2 emissions now.
GALLANT claims the free market will take care of it and recommends solving the problem by conning Zimbabwe out of their pollution credits.

GOOFUS advises his kids not to go into science.
GALLANT advises the president.

(Via .)